There’s been a lot of discussion and speculation lately about pent-up demand fizzling out and the possibility of a recession or economic downturn and its impact on Walt Disney World. While that’s a range of possibilities, the animating idea is the same, and we’ll attempt to answer here based on history and our expectations.

We’ve been saying for months that there’s likely to be a spending slowdown in the not too distant future. Pent-up demand among domestic visitors could fizzle out, inflation on necessities might result in reductions to discretionary spending, and the same could also happen due to depleted household savings and rising debt levels. Inflationary pressures and the rising cost of travel due to oil prices could bring the party to an end, too.

When some or all of that happens, consumers will return to being more cost-conscious and price sensitive, and things will normalize or more if the United States enters a recession. Our short and sweet answer as to what that means in this context is that Walt Disney World will end up offering better discounts, bringing back familiar fan favorites. If you want to be notified immediately when these deals are released, sign up here for our FREE Disney newsletter here. What follows is the why of that, with insight into the present and past…

Let’s start by addressing skepticism about the core premise of this post, as we recognize that it’s easy to dismiss this as wishful thinking. After all, it comes as the Walt Disney Company has repeatedly touted per guest spending increases of 40% as compared to pre-closure. Not only that, but the parks are packed and nothing seems to negatively impact demand. No matter what kind of consumer-unfriendly changes Walt Disney World makes, people keep coming.

While all of that is ostensibly true, there’s also the reality that fewer people are coming. Despite that sharp spending increase, reported revenue of theme parks has been down in most recent quarters versus 2019. This discrepancy is explained by capacity constraints, which are not by choice. Disney has been trying to staff up to accommodate more guests, but that process has been slow going (as covered in countless posts). The result of lower attendance limits coupled with pent-up demand has been greater pricing power.

It’s impossible to say how changing that equation–either by a decline in pent-up demand or an increase in capacity…or both–would impact Disney’s numbers. It’s safe to assume that per guest spending would start to decline as discounting became more necessary to fill hotel rooms or consumers tightened the purse strings.

Other sectors of the economy are already starting to experience exactly this. After a couple years of limited inventory due to supply chain disruptions coupled with increased consumer spending on goods, retailers like Walmart and Target now have warehouses of unwanted merchandise as spending sharply shifted from goods to services (like travel). Following scant sales the last couple of years, many retailers have now warned of weaker-than-expected revenue outlooks for the second half of the year and prepared investors for lower profits as they mark-down unwanted items to get rid of surplus inventory.

At present, that shift is benefitting Walt Disney World, as one such provider of services. Consumers continue to make up for lost vacations, with TSA reporting new 2-year highs on a regular basis (despite air travel disruptions). However, the same macroeconomic factors that have led to a slowdown in other types of spending will likely catch up to services soon. This summer could be the last hurrah for the ongoing travel boom.

If or when it does, Walt Disney World will react accordingly. The company is not somehow magically immune to economic conditions. We’ve addressed this countless times in the past, but to reiterate: Disney charges what the market will bear. They don’t hold off on price increases as a nice gesture to guests. Conversely, the company cannot simply choose to charge more to “recoup” money lost during the closure.

When Disney increases prices, the company does so not at the rate of inflation or because its costs are increasing at a commensurate level, but because they can. When they offer discounts, it’s out of necessity, not corporate benevolence. Walt Disney World is an extremely savvy and sophisticated business—they maximize profits to the greatest degree economically feasible.

Not to go off on too much of a tangent, but this is actually observable in recent food price increases at Walt Disney World—and not in the way you might think. Snack prices have shot up and the company has played other games with portion sizes, product quality, and suppliers.

However, table service entrees–even meats and other dishes that have seen their input costs skyrocket–have not increased in tandem with inflation. We’ve speculated that this is because Disney already pushed those prices up so much in the last several years, and there’s trepidation that going even higher would cause consumers to balk.

Similarly, it’s not as if Walt Disney World has ever dropped prices when attendance was high and increased prices when attendance was low as a result of its per guest costs decreasing. To the contrary, Disney charges the highest prices when demand is up (e.g. Christmas and New Year’s) and drops them when attendance is low (e.g. September).

Simply put, if the company could have freely increased prices without seeing a corresponding lack of demand, they already would have.

While there’s a widespread belief that a lot of the recent trends are a result of recovering from losses during the closure, that’s not accurate. Today’s pricing phenomenon is occurring industry wide, and is a result of consumer demand far outpacing available travel bandwidth. Consumers were stuck at home, and there’s a desire to make up for lost time as a result.

Similarly, household balance sheets are (or were, until the last few months) stronger than ever, meaning that Americans had more money to spend on travel than ever. Travel providers, Disney included, observed this degree of inelasticity of demand and took advantage. That same dynamic almost certainly will not exist a year from now–or maybe even in a few months.

This might be difficult for some Walt Disney World fans to accept for a couple of reasons. The first is precedent. With a few brief exceptions, prices have only gone up during the post-Great Recession recovery. There has been a decade-plus run of costs consistently going up like clockwork as Disney has benefited from economic expansion and favorable demographics (e.g. nostalgic millennials having kids, more international tourists, etc).

Diehard fans also have a fundamentally different view of the parks than the vast majority of guests. For many of us, vacation means visiting Walt Disney World. There is no “substitute good” for what Disney offers. To be sure, a large swath of the general public views the parks the same way. There’s an emotional component to the calculation for that “rite of passage” vacation, but most people are not willing to pay any amount that Disney tells them is the cost. They do have a balking point or price ceiling.

This is the fundamental fallacy with the common refrain that the company will always keep raising prices because fans will never stop visiting. Fans alone are not enough to sustain Walt Disney World. (Even then, fans are not a monolithic group–some think Disney can do no wrong; others have decades of experience visiting and hold the company to higher standards than does the general public.)

If middle class Americans considering a first-time trip–far and away Walt Disney World’s single largest demographic–go to price out a vacation on DisneyWorld.com and the package price is beyond their budget, that’s it. They’re out. They move on to the next-best alternative, whether that’s the local Six Flags or a road trip to see America’s National Parks.

With that said, there is a longstanding view of the parks as recession-proof. (In part, this led to the investments we are now seeing–Parks & Resorts was viewed as a stable and reliable business unit.) During the global financial crisis, attendance at Walt Disney World held relatively flat.

This was an impressive feat, but that doesn’t really tell the full story. Walt Disney World got incredibly aggressive and creative with discounts, promotions, and celebrations. The success of Disney’s theme parks during the downturn doesn’t prove their inherently recession-proof. Instead, it should be construed as a testament to leadership at the time.

For starters, the celebrations were spectacular. Anyone remember Limited Time Magic, Year of a Million Dreams, Summer Nightastic, What Will You Celebrate, or One More Disney Day? All of those year-long (or multi-year, in the case of Year of a Million Dreams) festivities put the World’s Most Magical Celebration to shame.

Just think, the blockbuster bash for 50 years of Walt Disney World was outdone by the celebration held in some meaningless (milestone-wise) year back in the late aughts. The point is that those events were a ton of fun, well-marketed, and had strong word of mouth as a result. None of that was by accident–people at Disney made that happen and that’s a big reason why the parks weathered that economic downturn so well.

Another big reason–probably the big reason why Walt Disney World outperformed during the Great Recession was discounts. The deals during and coming out of the financial crisis were crazy. We did several inexpensive stays at Pop Century and Saratoga Springs thanks to deep-discounts and stacking deals. Many newer fans probably wouldn’t believe the bargains. Suffice to say, we were able to visit Walt Disney World more than once per year with wages from our jobs in college.

It was a great time for Free Dining, along with other more novel discounts. We were also big fans of the “Buy 4, Get 3 Free” deal, which provided 3 free hotel nights and ticket days–plus a $200 gift card–when you booked 4 nights. That was without a doubt the best discount we’ve ever gotten at Walt Disney World, blowing away even the legacy version of Free Dining.

Speaking of the Free Disney Dining Plan Deal, that was the golden age of that particular promotion. Back in those good ole days, Free Dining meant the free regular Disney Dining Plan even at Value Resorts, and it included appetizers and tips back then.

To be sure, Free Dining can still be a great discount for some, but it was a sure thing back then. No doing the math or comparing to room-only discounts was necessary. It was unquestionably the superior discount.

Going back a bit further to the previous economic downturn, there were also some exceptionally good discounts post-9/11. People paid <$200 per night for Deluxe Resorts, Wilderness Lodge in the low $100s, with Value and Moderate Resorts in the $40-80 per night range.

I don’t think it’s worth fixating on that too much. For one thing, we’re two decades removed from 9/11, and both the world and Walt Disney World are fundamentally different. For another, Americans were collectively apprehensive of air travel back in late 2001 and 2002. By contrast, Americans very much want to continue traveling now, but finances might preclude that from happening.

We’d caution against salivating about the prospect of unprecedented or aggressive discounts given that generalized desire to travel and the evolution of Walt Disney World in the last 15 years. Personally, I’d be shocked if Walt Disney World offers anything like the 4/3 deal or anything on par with that.

Disney has also learned a lot about marketing in the years since. It’s more likely that they start small, and try offering more illusory discounts at first. It wouldn’t surprise me if they start with “Free Dining Lite” or “Half-Free Dining” and other gimmicks that trade on the name recognition of the Free Dining offer and tries to capture anxious guests who are eager for that to return. Disney dumping unsold room inventory onto blind-booking sites is another likely scenario.

As for timing of discounts, that largely depends upon internal projections of hotel occupancy and attendance. If they’re already starting to see a slowdown in bookings for 2023 or are behind trend, the deals are likely to start sooner.

In that scenario, I wouldn’t be surprised if Walt Disney World jumped right to actual Free Dining, with a release in January 2023. (Possibly an overzealous prediction given that the regular paid Disney Dining Plan isn’t even back.)

My concern is that people within the company will initially overestimate the strength and resilience of the parks & resorts. Walt Disney World has enjoyed an era of unprecedented prosperity–a time during which it felt like the business segment’s leaders could do no wrong. Even unpopular decisions were begrudgingly accepted, and Disney reaped incredible financial results. A decade like the last one can give rise to delusions of invincibility, and a lack of appreciation for the fickleness of consumers.

In that scenario, it’s possible that crowds fall rather than prices. It’s possible that attendance decreases regardless (or holds flat but appears to fall based on improved capacity and efficiency), but that’s more difficult to predict. That really depends on how Disney reacts, to what extent consumers pull back on travel, and the duration and degree of economic downturn.

During other recent economic downturns, Walt Disney World also made operational changes. Some venues were mothballed and costs were cut to the greatest extent possible. With Disney already pretty lean as it’s been unable to fully recover from the closure, it doesn’t seem like much of that would need to occur. To the contrary, it could become easier to reopen more and staff up certain venues if the labor market isn’t as tight.

One potential operational change is shorter hours. Probably nothing on par with the post-reopening period when the parks were closing at around 7 pm nightly, but Magic Kingdom closing at 9 or 10 pm and later opening times for the other parks wouldn’t be a surprise.

Another possibility is that projects are paused, delayed, or simply not greenlit. Outside of EPCOT, there’s not much happening at this point, so “not greenlit” is the most likely scenario. It’ll be interesting to see what is or isn’t announced at the upcoming D23 Expo.

It’ll also be interesting to see what happens with Disney Vacation Club development. There are several projects simultaneously underway, plus Aulani and Riviera still aren’t sold out. On top of that, the number of contracts hitting the resale market has exploded lately, which could be a canary in the coal mine.

With that said, how things play out also depends upon actual economic circumstances. Even though nearly 70% of economists are forecasting that the United States will enter a recession, it’s still not a foregone conclusion. After all, analysts have predicted 9 of the past 5 recessions.

Even if there is a recession or economic downturn, there’s uncertainty about its depths and duration. Many economists believe it’ll be a short and shallow recession due to underlying fundamentals. If there’s only a brief downturn followed by another sustained period of growth, Walt Disney World may feel minimal impact and implement few changes. In that case, we may never see any aggressive discounts–it could be more like a normalization bringing the parks back in alignment with pre-closure discount trends and demand.

Ultimately, it’ll be interesting to see how things play out and whether shifting sentiment and macroeconomic conditions impact Walt Disney World. To be sure, we are not “rooting” for a recession. Quite the contrary, as the negative human consequences far outweigh whatever benefits might exist with discounting, lower crowds, or whatever else.

Our best case scenario is that the United States avoids entering a recession, but pent-up demand naturally exhausts itself and weakening sentiment alone causes consumers to become more cost-conscious and price sensitive. That in turn should result in better deals and an improved environment without all of the downsides.

Regardless, hopefully you found this speculation interesting or illuminating. It’s something I find fascinating, and have touched upon it briefly in other recent posts about discounts, resorts, etc. None of those really did full justice to the topic, so I decided to dive deeper here. Admittedly, this might’ve been too deep and rambling, but on the upside, I can start linking to this post rather than wading back into this in future posts. So even if you feel like your time was “wasted” with this, you’ll still come out ahead in the long run! 😉

Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!

Do you think Walt Disney World’s prices will rise or fall in the coming year? Are you anticipating discounts on hotels, tickets, or dining if the United States enters a recession? Think they’ll do anything else–like another big celebration (that’s actually good) or limited time entertainment? Will you be ready to pounce on deals–or will you wait for a full economic bounceback? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!

I took my kids to WDW for the first time in 2009 after getting a pretty incredible deal on rooms and dining (free dining, 20% off gift card, two nights free). Went in July, and the place was a ghost town. Not so much the next two times we went (July 2012 and August 2016)! I’d love to get a similar deal this year for the 50th; my current plans are to visit in January 2023 but those are subject to change if a meaningful discount appears!

It’s interesting … just this morning I was sent a survey from Disney about my perception of inflation and how we’ve adjusted our spending habits!

Disney used to give great discounts to active duty and retired service members and their dependents, but that’s been steadily going downhill the past few years. What used to be a 35% discount on moderate resort rooms is now between 15-20%. There used to be a set rate, but now it’s a crap shoot & you can’t even get a discount on the Caribbean Beach Resort or Pop Century anymore. You have no idea what the discount is on any given resort until you call. And it’ll be different at every resort. Same thing with the tickets. While it’s still a good deal, compared to non-discounted ticket prices, the cost went up $30 per ticket this year, which was shocking to the military community who live on barely-there wages. Even the discount for the MNSSHP tickets isn’t what they used to be. Now it’s only a $4 difference between discounted and non-discounted.

This has led many to abandon Disney and move to Universal (which has given an unbelievable ticket discount the past two years). Even the ones who are sticking with Disney aren’t getting the Disney rooms like before. Shades of Green used to be a good alternative to Disney resorts, but now getting a room there is next to impossible. We’ve been doing Disney regularly since 2013, and I’ve never seen the rooms sell out at Shades of Green like they did this year. They’ve already sold out of a lot of rooms in January and February which is surprising because Disney doesn’t release its military discount for the following year until the last week of September (though this year they didn’t announce them until mid-November). But I have a feeling a lot of the guests are staying there and going to SeaWorld Orlando and Universal and not just Disney.

Based on my admittedly anecdotal experience, I think Walt Disney World has already lost a fair amount of standing with the millennial fans they picked up over the past decade. We all still have a sentimental attachment to the parks, but most everyone I know who has visited in the past year-and-a-half has remarked how the parks are both more expensive and less magical. No one has completely sworn off the parks, but they also aren’t in any hurry to return. Most would probably go back for a “rite of passage” style trip for the kids, but a lot of my fellow elder millennials have either already done one or are currently childless.

Also, while I don’t blame Chapek for everything, he sure doesn’t seem like a particularly ambitious CEO. Iger really pushed all aspects of the company to grow while Chapek seems content to mostly collect on the goodwill and ingrained spending habits Iger fostered. I will be *very* interested to see what is or is not announced a D23; he won’t really have the pandemic to hide behind and if we don’t get some big announcements for all facets of the business, it will be our best indication yet that Chapek isn’t interested in innovating (or hiring people who are).

I agree all tickets should be reduced plus fast passes should return with no fees. Also either larger food portions should return so families can share or prices should be lowered, And merchandise prices should drop at least 30 per cent. Yes, Every company should make a profit, Disney”s margins of profit are way higher than necceessary.

Reading your blogs are never a waste. Very enjoyable reading today if not uplifting. Truth is for many of the 98% the recession is here. Two years ago I started occasionally mentioning that great deals based on a recession were coming and they are closer now than ever. Disney will never lower prices but they will offer greater discounts. I think Disney’s biggest problem is they’ve eroded from within. Top management on a personal level has no clue what it feels like to pay $75 to fill a Toyota Corola. That hurts all the local business, restaurants, nightclubs, etc. Discretionary spending is sitting in your gas tank while also going to a higher electric bill, heating oil bill or grocery bill. (All of which was avoidable under smarter management and I’m not talking Disney there). Add in the uncertain future with huge increases coming on credit cards and mortgages and you’ve got a lot of people thinking staycation. Now you throw in self inflicted woulds like reducing Disney Resort benefits, nickel and diming the guests and top it off with stupid unnecessary PR nightmares and you’ve given many the excuse they needed to rationalize staying home. Great deals will be coming unless current administrators screw that up too. Never underestimate the ability of people with high end 6 and 7 figure salaries to not get it.

When I look at all the people that are traveling not just to Disney World it’s exactly what you said pent-up desire to get out. Covid put people in a hold for over two years. When I talk to people about Disney – those that just don’t understand the love – and the parks being absolutely crazy right now what I tell them is that there is a lot of people in this world that can afford to go on vacation once maybe twice a year. Well for two years they didn’t get to go on those vacations so they had all that money in their bank accounts. Then there are people that maybe not go on vacation often but again because they were stuck at home they needed to get out when they finally were able to. A lot of parents took their kids because they felt as many do that Covid really impacted their kids mental health so they wanted to do something that was really special for their children. And on top of this the 50th anniversary drew lots of people to the park. People were willing to spend all that extra money for the price increases just for some much-needed fun. As those groups of people start to dwindle because they’ve done what they wanted to do I do believe the crowds will decrease. And on top of this economy. I moved to Florida in 2004 and stayed till 2008. That was at a time when everything started to skyrocket and people just couldn’t afford to do a lot. I remember the down times in the months that were quiet in the parks. I definitely believe after the new year and after the 50th anniversary comes to a close if prices continue to go up as far as our food, gas and housing, I truly believe we will see a definite slow down not just a Disney World but other destination vacations

“Regardless, hopefully you found this speculation interesting or illuminating.” I feel like my enjoyment of the site could be summed up by something like I came for the travel planning, but stayed for the analysis. Great read, and very interesting. I also find the intersection of the, “real world” and Disney very interesting, and I am very curious to see how this all plays out.

Thanks for the insights. Photography question – that shot of the back of the castle from the carousel is really nice. There isn’t a person in it, which is hard to get even at opening or closing and yet the sky is fairly light. Was this a post-close shot that you overexposed to brighten things up?

That was taken on the last day of Extra, Extra Magic Hours that were offered during the first few months Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge was open. Magic Kingdom opened at 7 am daily, which was about 45 minutes before sunrise.

The parks were mostly dead during ExEMH. It was wild.

Nice! I remember reading about that, but we didn’t get down there during that time. OF all the WDW cuts (entertainment, Genie+, etc.) the shorter park hours are probably what bother me the most. (maybe after not having a night time parade)

Every Disney fans’ greatest wish is for the parks to be less crowded. The only way that can happen is for prices to be out of reach for many people. That probably sounds mean, but I don’t know how else to sugar coat this reality.

Thank you for saying this. It’s a simple economics problem. Physical space in a Disney park is in high demand. To reduce that demand, increase the price. Otherwise, the parks are overrun. That’s just the way it is in a world with 7 billion people, many of whom are reaching middle class for the first time in history. It will only get more crowded if prices do not increase significantly from here.

WDW has taken it too far for us, regardless of the economic conditions……..removing perks and Genie+ has caused us to look elsewhere. The experience is not worth the money any longer. Dont get me wrong, we want to go back, we just wont unless they change

Thinking about this from a Disneyland perspective:

Disneyland boomed during the 2008-2009 recession, because it was local, cheap, and unexplored for SoCalers. Combine that free Birthday tickets in 2009, and passses that only cost $200 – and you saw this just massive explosion in the local markets that caused many of the pre-COVID headaches of Annual Passholders and crowding.

Today, that market feels really changed. Even my previously die-hard friends don’t think that “top tier” passes are a good value anymore at $1500 with no guaranteed admission (Fairly quickly, I’m the only one in my friends group that I met at Disneyland that has a pass). Food prices are out of control, Hotel prices feel unsustainable, Genie+ is seen by many as a “necessary” upcharge – and it feels abit like Universal Hollywood did a when Potter opened, the #WarOnLocals will cool overall demand when they need it the most. With top-tier Dream Keys basically open all summer, it’s clear they cut-off sales because of the lawsuit, the impact to the other blocked out days (Enchant is the most popular), and overall local demand is softening (opening up the resident deal over the summer to call of CA instead of SoCal).

I don’t think Disneyland handles the next recession as well as it did before. I think even if you opened up the spigot of locals – the overall operational hostility and general locals market feels like it’s starting to move on.

Very interesting perspective, and one with which I’d agree. There’s a lot of long-term damage inflicted on the local market and diehard fans that won’t easily be undone. (Something we covered several years ago in “Is Walt Disney World Eroding Fan Goodwill?” That seems even more accurate/relevant today than when it was written.)

To that point, I almost included this in the post, but it was already too long:

It would seem that price increases will continue unabated until the next economic downturn. Given the staggering number of “Most Expensive Day Ever” and “#BROKE” shirts (among hundreds of other similar Etsy designs) visible in the parks right now, we do think Walt Disney World has a serious pricing reputation and perception problem.

However, as long as consumer confidence remains high, people will pay the prices…and then spend even more to wear shirts complaining about said prices. The serious issue will come down the road when people are not feeling so hot about their economic circumstances and future.

At that point, it’s a question of whether discounting will be enough to incentivize guests to return, or if irreparable brand damage will have been done during the last decade or so of increases. We don’t have an answer to that—no one does—but it’s definitely something about which we’re curious.

I’m just hoping for lower crowds (especially since I refuse to buy Genie)! We had a trip booked for January 2022, but then we had a family emergency and had to cancel. Later we saw that Disney had record crowds for the “slow period” so we were not too upset we missed it. We’ve since rescheduled for January 2023 so we shall see what happens.

Free dining like at the peak of the last recession, was how they build a new market of die hard fans. We could finally afford to take our kids for the first time and for $10/per child per night upgraded to Deluxe- and took our kids to 3 character meals a day basically for the cost of tips while staying in value resort for what now looks like pennies! Not to mention the parks were so empty all that dining time didn’t mess anything up- we strolled into EPCOT one morning, stood outside the land observing we couldn’t see a single human, and walked on to Figment after 9:30 with them telling us we were the first party of the day. I hope new families get to experience some magic like that, but feel skeptical the turn around might be too quick.

I can’t believe how old I sound.

“Free dining like at the peak of the last recession, was how they build a new market of die hard fans.”

This blog literally would not exist but for that and the other deals then. If we were in college today, we could never afford Walt Disney World. Those cheaper trips helped rekindle our childhood love for the parks…and led to all of this.

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